 |
| BOS of APC vs. JK of PDP in Lagos |
 |
| Babatunde O. Gbadamosi of the ADP Lagos |
 |
| Bayo Adelabu of APC vs. Seyi Makinde of PDP |
 |
| Abiodun of APC vs. KASHAMU of PDP vs. ISIAKA of ADC vs. Akinlade of APM |
 |
| Razak ATUNWA of PDP vs. Abdulrahaman AbdulRazaq of APC in Kwara State |
 |
| Ayorinde Adedoyin of Accord Party Kwara State |
Analysis of how things might pan out, considering the contestants, their parties, their strengths and their weaknesses.
Tomorrow is the D-day! That's when the Gubernatorial elections across the states in Nigeria would take place and the general populace are expected to troop out enmasse to elect those to take charge of their affairs for the next 4 years.
It's not just the Gubernatorial though, elections for the states House Of Assembly would also be going on simultaneously, but we would be concentrating our attention strictly on the Governorship and further, our eyes would be glued strictly to the happenstances in some of the states in the SW, where elections would take place, as the likes of Ondo, Ekiti and Osun States are not participating for obvious reasons.
Lagos, Ogun, Oyo States are the 3 major battlegrounds plus Kwara State in the North Central. In these 4 states it's an outright battle between the 2 most prominent Political parties in the country, that's talking about the APC & the PDP, except in Ogun State where about 2 more parties have gained a bit more of ascendancy and therefore have been added to the mix for particular reasons, those parties are the African Democratic Congress, where Gboyega Nasir Isiaka is the party's aspirant & Allied People's Movement, where the incumbent Governor's favorite boy, Hon. Adekunle Akinlade, is the aspirant.
These particular election is most definitely going to be one of the most keenly fought ever in the histories of those states. Many of the opponents are evenly matched and there are factors that have given some candidates and their parties slight edges or advantages.
LAGOS STATE.
 |
| Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu |
This is where a major battle royale would happen, the state of aquatic excellence. And it is expected that it would be an epic battle that would shake the state to its very marrow. The 3 major contestants that would contend vigorously against each other are none other than Babatunde Olusola Sanwoolu of the ruling APC, his fierce opponent, Jimi Agbaje of the PDP and then to a certain extent, Babatunde Olalere. Gbadamosi of the ADP (Action Democratic Party). Some people might not necessarily consider BOG, but we would like to say to such people that, dismiss him at your own peril. We are of the opinion that he seems to have gained some tractions of recent, as he is seen by some as a fantastic alternative to both the APC & the PDP. So for many who are in the middle and who don't want any of the 2 major parties again for some reasons best known to them, they see BOG as their rallying point.
The battle between the 2 major parties, that's the APC & the PDP would be totally and unpretentiously fierce. While the APC wants to win again in Lagos at all cost, to rub salt on the injury of the PDP for losing the Presidential election, which they the PDP had been so sure they could win. The PDP on the other hand, are desperate to win Lagos for 2 major reasons, it would mean the destruction of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, both as a person and politically wise. The chieftain of the APC, has bestrode Lagos politically this close to 2 decades like a colossus that oukd not be dislodged, so his total DEMYSTIFICATION would sit well with the PDP, where they to win Lagos. And it would also give them, the PDP some certain value and control.
That the PDP was not pulverized, obliterated or annihilated at the Presidential election of February 23, 2019 has given them the belief that nothing is impossible. Everyone had expected a monumentally scary margin of victory like Yobe State. But imagine that the election was won by just a 130000 plus margin, in a state where the Asiwaju controls?
So after their defeat at the Presidential election, the PDP rallying call became the need to defeat BAT at all cost, no matter what! Let's wrestle the state from him, while giving it all it takes. So the array of gladiators involved in the battle for Lagos is staggering. Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, Ayodele Fayose, Olabode George, Jimi Agbaje. Infact there are some who are supposedly progressives joined in the battle too, but who are in the shadows who would love to see the back of the Asiwaju. But can these assemblage, no matter how intimidating pin down and pin fall the cat with the 9 lives? While the PDP have their own array of strong men, the APC too also have theirs, led by the generalismo himself, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, supported faithfully by Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, flanked by Cardinal Odumbaku and other grassroots mobilisers of note.
Truth be told, monumental amount of funds, such as never seen or encountered before, have gone out from both sides and have exchanged hands to make sure that it all goes well for both sides and so that things would also go according to scripts also. Asiwaju is seen as a veteran of many battles, who has honed his skills over time and so knows too well, how to go about winning the wars. Deploying his soldiers tactically with strong arsenals. But this particular war has many factors that are not playing strictly to script. The Ibos in Lagos, seem to have a bit of power and they are keeping their ace to their chest and are seen as one of the factors that could swing the vote, either way! Some have even identified them as spoilers. So both parties have been courting them. Reason why the former Governor of Abia State, now a Senator elect, in the person of Sir Orji Uzor Kalu is said to have come to Lagos to tell the Ibos not to disturb the apple cart and to vote for the APC.
While the thrust of PDP's campaign has been about Freedom: freeing Lagos from the supposed clutches of the Asiwaju. Who they have painted as one parasite, that is sapping the life-force of the state. Their claim is that how can one man alone, over a very long period of time, sit alone and be in charge of the affairs of Lagos in all ramifications, especially as they claim that he is even a non indigene. But the thrust of the APC rather has been about Continuity. Claiming that Lagos was and would never be enslaved by any. But that the Asiwaju actually, conceptualized the blueprint of the better and more modern, more prosperous Lagos, we are supposedly enjoying now. A state that is even somewhat now bigger than the FG and is in fact NOW, the 6th largest economy in Africa. The claim is that, instead of trying to cast aspersions on the Asiwaju and put him in a bad-light, he has rather being a great discoverer of wonderful talents who he has natured and who have helped steered the affairs of the state admirably and exemplarily, and who have all been empowered and have become giants too now.
While the PDP and APC are having a go at each other, BOG of the ADP on the other side, has just been on his own in the position of the best alternative to the 2. One who seem to have dissected the state and her issues very well and has diagnosed what the problems are, who seem to have clear and somewhat fantastic ideas about what he wants to do and solutions and answers to provide: but the issue now is, he doesn't seem to have a great platform to prosecute his dream.
Of the 3, Sanwoolu, has had a great record in the private and public sector put together. In fact his experience in governance when compared to the 3 is staggering. From being former adviser to Governor, to Commissioner over more than one portfolio, boss of an important Government parastatal, policy formulator etc. JK has only always been in the private sector. He owns his own pharmaceutical brand, that truly has not done too well of one would critically access it, especially if you compare with how new brands, who just came yesterday have sprung up in the last few years and the kind of monumental growths they have had, with branches springing up every where, every time. Babatunde Olalere Gbadamosi on the other part, has done extremely well for himself in business. He is one person that can be tagged a young czar of the private sector, a self made, bright and quite intelligent or knowledgeable shining star. Born in the UK of Nigerian parentage. He is quick to tell whoever cares to know that though he is a successful businessman/property merchant of note, he doesn't have a degree!
Yes, he actually dropped out after 3 years at the Lagos State University (LASU). He has since grown to be a successful entrepreneur, who is the chairman of Amen Estate in Lagos and also Redbrick Homes International.
So, the Lagos election would be keenly watched to see if it's a continuation or a new dawn or a total total change in all ramifications. Would it be BOS or JK or BOG? We would know quite soon, by Monday or Tuesday next week. But we can tell you categorically though that, more people would come out enmasse to vote this time around, better than they did on February 23, 2019 and one of the 3 would nick it by the skin of his teeth.
OYO STATE.
 |
| Senator Abiola Ajimobi, Oyo State |
It would have been a whole lot clearer in Oyo State had the APC won in the Presidential election of February 23, 2019. The opposition took the state and that shows things would not be a walk in the park for the APC in Oyo. Part of the reason why the state was lost was also due to how the outgoing government of Senator Abiola Ajimobi is perceived.
Plenty more after the break.
The face of the party in the state, in the person of the Governor is seen as a very arrogant and uncaring person. Governor Ajimobi after becoming the 1st Governor in the history of the state to return and have 2 terms, began to believe his own hype. In fact some began to see him as a megalomaniac. That he ran for election to return as a Senator, after he would have finished his tenure as Governor and was defeated was not surprising to many. It was a defeat many were waiting for. In the mind of the people, he was a Senator before, then he became a 2 term Governor and now wanted to return again to the Senate again.... na only him?
Here again, the Gubernatorial election would be keenly fought. It would not be a roll over at all. The 2 major contenders are Bayo Adelabu of the APC and Seyi Makinde of the PDP. Forget any other contestants making any noise about. The APC before the Presidential election had the major advantage and that was due then to the fact that the aspirant was handpicked and is well supported by the outgoing incumbent, Senator Abiola Ajimobi. Also again, the major leaders of the party at the national level, were also favourably disposed to Bayo Adelabu's emergence as the party flagbearer. What Bayo Adelabu also has going for him is that he is brilliant, well educated (1st Class from OAU amongst others), very well experienced in the public sector, he was in fact the youngest to have ever become a Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria years back, before then he had become an ED/CFO at 39 at Nigeria's biggest bank, First Bank Plc, (he would be 49 come September 2019) and to add to all that, he is stinkingly, or like some say, stupendously rich. Someone who is said to have also invested very well in the private sector, in the hospitality sector, owning about 2 very massive hotels of international standards and is also into large scale farming. Then he has pedigree going for him, being the grandson of a late renowned politician from the state, in the person of the late Sir. Adegoke Adelabu of the Penkelemes fame. He is representing the APC tomorrow.
Seyi Makinde, Oluseyi Makinde to be more precise on the other hand is an avowed self-made man from an humble beginning, whose dad was a renowned teacher turned accountant. The PDP aspirant is a known and well loved philanthropist per excellence. He is one person who has over the years endeared himself to his people for his love for charity. He is a trained engineer, a graduate of the University of Lagos. And at 51, still a very young man at that, he would be 52 come Christmas day December 2019.
Mr. Makinde owns his own Engineering, Oil and Gas firm and has always been in the private sector, except for a period of time (1992 to 97), 5 years when he worked for some major oil and gas firms, Shell and a few others where he rose from being a pupil engineer to a full blown engineer, before leaving in 1997. He established his first company, involved in oil and gas, engineering over 20 plus years ago at the age of 29. So just imagine the kind of extraordinary experience the man has at his disposal. To run a successful private business in Nigeria is not a little feat!
Unlike his main opponent, in the person of Bayo Adelabu who is contesting for an elective post for the very 1st time (a neophyte), this is Seyi Makinde's 2nd missionary journey in his quest to govern Oyo state. And he had contested several times before to become a Senator too. Z1st in 2007 under the ANPP, he lost, then he moved to the PDP in 2011 and lost at the Primary. In 2015 he was at the PDP, but when he didn't get the party 's nomination, he defected and contested under the flag of the SDP for the same position and even then against the present incumbent, he had caused a bit of jitters with how he went about his campaign then.
Seyi Makinde is a brilliant man, who apart from his degree in Electrical Engineering from University of Lagos, has read far and wide and even went to MIT, that's the famous Massachusetts Institute of Technology, one of the best schools in the world.
The battle for the Agodi house is a battle between 2 somewhat equals, one is not far above the other at all. Apart from the APC might behind Adelabu, a former Governor in the State, in the person of Chief Christopher Alao Akala, who has just returned to the APC and who seem to have a sizeable support strength, has thrown his whole weight behind Bayo Adelabu. While Akala has done that for the APC, the strong man of the Accord Party, himself a former Governor of Oyo State too, in the person of Chief Rasheed Ladoja and other quite prominent Oyo politicians from other political parties, one of who is Chief Olufemi Lanlehin and also Chief Sharafadeen Alli and others have also thrown their own sizeable weights behind Seyi Makinde too. Giving him a major boost ahead of the election tomorrow.
So it is battle arrayed. Who would carry the day? Would the disappointment of APC in Oyo state continue? Or would they get the necessary spark of life to regain lost grounds? Tomorrow would surely tell. But the thing could swing either way.
OGUN STATE.
 |
| Senator Ibikunle Amosun |
 |
| Chief Olusegun Osoba |
The New Senator elect, who won the election under the APC, but who is now suspended from the party for anti-party activities, who is in fact the incumbent Governor and the outgoing in the same mix, has totally jeopardized the chances of his party (former if the suspension is counted), for that of the APM his now preferred love. There is the possibility that if care is not taken, then the APC might lose Ogun State and that seems to be what, Governor Ibikunle Amosun wants. If he doesn't have his way. The Governor who is physically, spiritually and otherwise against the flagbearer of his "supposed" party, the APC in the person of his former friend Chief Dapo Abiodun is hellbent on throwing the apple and the applecart into the garbage bin. His preference Hon. Adekunle Akinlade in protest for not emerging as the APC aspirant moved to the APM immediately to prosecute his ambition. The outgoing Governor, who is his main backer is giving him all the support and everything he can muster to deny the APC the seat. And because of the divided house, it might affect the fortune of the ruling party at the election. That's even what the other opposing candidates and their parties are praying for. They want the protest votes to come their way. 3 parties wants to gain from the demise of the APC, the main opposition party the PDP, whose own problem is outrageous and totally unbelievable. The other parties set to gain are the APM & the ADC, that's Akinlade and Gboyega Nasir Isiaka.
The thing with APM & ADC is, do they have the wide acceptance and spread that the APC & PDP have, to constitute some sort of nuisance factor? Do they both have the resources and wherewithal that the other 2 major parties have? Would the Federal might count for something for the APC? Can the PDP forget rancor and come together as one? Can Buruji Kashamu now that the Court has affirmed his candidacy cause an upset? But even the most prominent people in the PDP are now said to be clamoring for Dapo Abiodun of the APC.
It is a major battle for the spine of Ogun State, between Dapo Abiodun vs. Buruji Kashamu vs. Gboyega Nasir Isiaka vs. Adekunle AKINLADE. None of these men are willing to shift a toe to give another the slightest advantage. There might just be some skirmishes in Ogun State tomorrow because of the personalities contesting the election though. But it could yet be the closest ever election in that state. The incumbent, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, has lost his invincibility status since he became a part of the opposition and this might also affect his ward, Hon. Akinlade.
Another issue with Akinlade and GNI is also that, both are strong men from the same area, Yewa. And because both are contesting and are not willing to concede for each other and become one massive force, the votes they are both expecting from their core strengths is already divided and this might actually cost them both. Their highest number of votes should normally come from where they are actually from. Also in the case of Akinlade, party machinery that should have been at the full disposal of his godfather, Senator Amosun and that should have been deployed to full effect for him is not available in full capacity no more. Also the dislike now for Amosun by the workers who are in large number also could be extended to the one he supports too. The truth though is this, Amosun is spending an outrageous amount of money to try to get his boy in no matter what.
In the case of the PDP, can Buruji Kashamu win in the whole of Ogun State, when it is not an election into the Senate, consisting of just how many LGAs, which he could have easily influenced? Is it possible for the whole of Ogun State to vote for a Buruji Kashamu?
The common saying is that, a city divided against itself cannot stand, so all the parties have major, very fundamental issues to deal with. Which could cost them all.
Finally.
KWARA STATE.
 |
| Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki |
 |
| Alh. Lai Mohammed |
Though not a state in the South West, it is one state that is also in our focus for obvious reasons. The combatants arrayed against each other there. Until the outgoing Senate President, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki was defeated, roundly and soundly on February 23, 2019 at both the Presidential and Federal House of Assembly elections that held in that State, none could have predicted categorically the outcome of things in Kwara State, the way it has happened now. The shock of the outcome of that election, shook the outgoing Governor, the former Governor and current Senate president and their supporters to their marrow on ways they have not allowed people to see. .
Part of why they lost the election in all facet was complacency. They never expected it. They were too sure, too cocky about their worth or value to think they could be swept out and away like it was done. They thought of it as the usual. Saraki their General was blind-sided, so he didn't see the obvious cracks in his wall and didn't totally envisaged what came. All his eyes, meaning, those who worked for him and who should have seen too and should have his interests at heart too, were blinded too. And by the time the veil was lifted, the terrible and embarrassing damage had already been done. Though it was the Oto ge (enough is enough) Tsunami that was used to sweep Kwara State, a monumental, quite staggering amount of funds, went also into making it happen.
Like we had said before, if the other elections had happened immediately after the first 2, then it would have been a fait accompli, as the APC would have had an easy ride straight to the Governorship too. As it would have made the PDP already gasping for breath go immediately comatose. But alas, though they were somewhat decimated, pulverized, nearly annihilated by the blitz, but the little time given them has allowed them to gain some breath and now what should have been a done deal, a mere battle as now become an all out war! The main weapon of choice,.. ... money!!!!
Saraki and his many supporters both in Kwara and at the national level wants to save face. They want to make some sort of statement. If they are able to reclaim the Governorship, the rhetorics would be that, now you can see that the previous elections were outrageously rigged! So they are doing all they can, it is a do or die for them now to claim the Governorship. For the APC, as led by Alhaji Lai Mohammed, they want to continue the statement that they already began many days back,that the state wanted a changw and demanded fur it, with their votes. So they want to finish what they had begun. Would the Federal might count for something here also? Whose war chest of money would speak best? And would carry the day?
Asiwaju, would have one eye on Kwara's outcome too as it's an important place too, as they would want to make, total the decimation of Saraki and cohorts that they started already. It's pay back time for what had ensued at the National Assembly all of the past 4 years. But Asiwaju's attention would be on 4 places all at the same time too. Lagos most importantly must not fall, Ogun State very importantly too, so also Oyo and Kwara States. What the APC wants to do to Saraki, is also what Saraki and Co wants to do to Asiwaju at any cost in Lagos too. The major cry now is that APC must not lose in any of the states, but most especially in Lagos, the seat of Asiwaju..
The contestants in Kwara fighting for the heart of the State are as follows. For the APC, we have a shrewd and quite well connected oil and gas magnate, in the person of Abdulrahaman AbdulRazaq, the owner of an indigenous oil and gas brand First Fuel. AA is a scion of the 1st Northern lawyer in Nigeria by name Alh. AbdulGaniyu Folorunsho AbdulRazaq, a former President of the Nigerian Stock Exchange. A detribalised Nigerian, who was born in Onitsha, and speaks Yoruba, Igbo and Hausa fluently. Not only is Abdulrahaman, a celebrated wealthy businessman, his sister a former Senator, Hajia Khairat Gwadabe is also a political juggernaut too. He has pedigree by virtue of his birth and accomplishments in business.
For Hon. Razak Atunwa, the candidate of the ruling party, the PDP, he is himself, a force of nature to reckon with by all standards. From when he returned to Nigeria from the UK where he was formerly based, having been brought back or invited back by the late strongman of Kwara politics and father of the current Senate President, who incidentally himself was a senate leader in his own time, in the person of Alhaji Dr. Olusola Saraki.
From when he got back till now, it has been an upward growth trajectory for Atunwa. Much is not known about his parental background, except for the pedigree of those who adopted him as their political son. And have aided his upward movement or swing till date, due to his extreme loyalty to them. From being a commissioner holding several different portfolios at different times from 2005 till 2009, to becoming the speaker of the state house of assembly KSHA, where he was said to have performed meritoriously well, to becoming a member of the Federal House of Representatives that he is currently. Apart from being a lawyer, with Masters degree, he is also a trained Pilot.
If we compare their antecedences and pedigree, you would see that while one is a private sector juggernaut-that's Abdulrahaman AbdulRazaq , the other is a public sector czar-that's Hon. Razak Atunwa, who it seems has been carefully trained over the years, for this sort of leadership position from (2005 till 2019). From State to the National level. And if not for the Saraki factor, Atunwa would have slightly carried the edge going into the election tomorrow. Truth though is, what people might be considering as a disadvantage, might also be what could work in his favour too.
Waiting in the wings to gain from the destruction of the 2 major contenders, who are set pulverize each other is another alternative from the 2, in the person of Prince Ayorinde Adedoyin, the Agbamu prince and successful businessman son, of Chief Samuel Adedoyin, the great industrialist behind Doyin Group of Companies. Ayorinde Adedoyin of the Accord Party who owns Seagate Group, a private business concern that is multifaceted in investment, is what Babatunde Olalere Gbadamosi is in Lagos, to them in Kwara State.
So are we by any means, ushering in a fresh new order in Kwara State or it is a continuation of the old order?
We would get to know,, in the next 72 or more hours.
No comments:
Post a Comment