MARCH 9, 2019 GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS IN NIGERIA. THIS WOULD BE ONE OF THE MOST KEENLY FOUGHT/CONTESTED ELECTIONS IN THE COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WEST & KWARA

BOS of APC vs. JK of PDP in Lagos 

Babatunde O. Gbadamosi of the ADP Lagos 

Bayo Adelabu of APC vs. Seyi Makinde of PDP

Abiodun of APC vs. KASHAMU of PDP vs. ISIAKA of ADC vs. Akinlade of APM

Razak ATUNWA of PDP vs. Abdulrahaman AbdulRazaq of APC in Kwara State 

Ayorinde Adedoyin of Accord Party Kwara State

Analysis of how things might pan out, considering the contestants, their parties, their strengths and their weaknesses.

Tomorrow is the D-day! That's when the Gubernatorial elections across the states in Nigeria would take place and the general populace are expected to troop out enmasse to elect those to take charge of their affairs for the next 4 years.

It's not just the Gubernatorial though, elections for the states House Of Assembly would also be going on simultaneously, but we would be concentrating our attention strictly on the Governorship and further, our eyes would be glued strictly to the happenstances in some of the states in the SW, where elections would take place, as the likes of Ondo, Ekiti and Osun States are not participating for obvious reasons.

Lagos, Ogun, Oyo States are the 3 major battlegrounds plus Kwara State in the North Central. In these 4 states it's an outright battle between the 2 most prominent Political parties in the country, that's talking about the APC & the PDP, except in Ogun State where about 2 more parties have gained a bit more of ascendancy and therefore have been added to the mix for particular reasons, those parties are the African Democratic Congress, where Gboyega Nasir Isiaka is the party's aspirant & Allied People's Movement, where the incumbent Governor's favorite boy, Hon. Adekunle Akinlade, is the aspirant.

These particular election is most definitely going to be one of the most keenly fought ever in the histories of those states. Many of the opponents are evenly matched and there are factors that have given some candidates and their parties slight edges or advantages.

LAGOS STATE.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu 

This is where a major battle royale would happen, the state of aquatic excellence. And it is expected that it would be an epic battle that would shake the state to its very marrow. The 3 major contestants that would contend vigorously against each other are none other than Babatunde Olusola Sanwoolu of the ruling APC, his fierce opponent, Jimi Agbaje of the PDP and then to a certain extent, Babatunde Olalere. Gbadamosi of the ADP (Action Democratic Party). Some people might not necessarily consider BOG, but we would like to say to such people that, dismiss him at your own peril. We are of the opinion that he seems to have gained some tractions of recent,  as he is seen by some as a fantastic alternative to both the APC & the PDP. So for many who are in the middle and who don't want any of the 2 major parties again for some reasons best known to them, they see BOG as their rallying point.

The battle between the 2 major parties, that's the APC & the PDP would be totally and unpretentiously fierce. While the APC wants to win again in Lagos at all cost, to rub salt on the injury of the PDP for losing the Presidential election, which they the PDP had been so sure they could win. The PDP on the other hand, are desperate to win Lagos for 2 major reasons, it would mean the destruction of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, both as a person and politically wise. The chieftain of the APC, has bestrode Lagos politically this close to 2 decades like a colossus that oukd not be dislodged, so his total DEMYSTIFICATION would sit well with the PDP, where they to win Lagos. And it would also give them, the PDP some certain value and control.

That the PDP was not pulverized, obliterated or annihilated at the Presidential election of February 23, 2019 has given them the belief that nothing is impossible. Everyone had expected a monumentally scary margin of victory like Yobe State. But imagine that the election was won by just a 130000 plus margin, in a state where the Asiwaju controls?

So after their defeat at the Presidential election, the PDP rallying call became the need to defeat BAT at all cost, no matter what! Let's wrestle the state from him, while giving it all it takes. So the array of gladiators involved in the battle for Lagos is staggering. Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, Ayodele Fayose, Olabode George, Jimi Agbaje. Infact there are some who are supposedly progressives joined in the battle too, but who are in the shadows who would love to see the back of the Asiwaju. But can these assemblage, no matter how intimidating pin down and pin fall the cat with the 9 lives? While the PDP have their own array of strong men, the APC too also have theirs, led by the generalismo himself, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, supported faithfully by Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, flanked by Cardinal Odumbaku and other grassroots mobilisers of note.

Truth be told, monumental amount of funds, such as never seen or encountered before, have gone out from both sides and have exchanged hands to make sure that it all goes well for both sides and so that things would also go according to scripts also. Asiwaju is seen as a veteran of many battles, who has honed his skills over time and so knows too well, how to go about winning the wars. Deploying his soldiers tactically with strong arsenals. But this particular war has many factors that are not playing strictly to script. The Ibos in Lagos, seem to have a bit of power and they are keeping their ace to their chest and are seen as one of the factors that could swing the vote, either way! Some have even identified them as spoilers. So both parties have been courting them. Reason why the former Governor of Abia State, now a Senator elect, in the person of Sir Orji Uzor Kalu is said to have come to Lagos to tell the Ibos not to disturb the apple cart and to vote for the APC.

While the thrust of PDP's campaign has been about Freedom: freeing Lagos from the supposed clutches of the Asiwaju. Who they have painted as one parasite, that is sapping the life-force of the state. Their claim is that how can one man alone, over a very long period of time,  sit alone and be in charge of the affairs of Lagos in all ramifications, especially as they claim that he is even a non indigene. But the thrust of the APC rather has been about Continuity. Claiming that Lagos was and would never be enslaved by any. But that the Asiwaju actually, conceptualized the blueprint of the better and more modern, more prosperous Lagos, we are supposedly enjoying now. A state that is even somewhat now bigger than the FG and is in fact NOW, the 6th largest economy in Africa. The claim is that, instead of trying to cast aspersions on the Asiwaju and put him in a bad-light, he has rather being a great discoverer of wonderful talents who he has natured and who have helped steered the affairs of the state admirably and exemplarily, and who have all been empowered and have become giants too now.

While the PDP and APC are having a go at each other, BOG of the ADP on the other side, has just been on his own in the position of the best alternative to the 2. One who seem to have dissected the state and her issues very well and has diagnosed what the problems are, who seem to have clear and somewhat fantastic ideas about what he wants to do and solutions and answers to provide: but the issue now is, he doesn't seem to have a great platform to prosecute his dream.

Of the 3, Sanwoolu, has had a great record in the private and public sector put together. In fact his experience in governance when compared to the 3 is staggering. From being former adviser to Governor, to Commissioner over more than one portfolio, boss of an important Government parastatal, policy formulator etc. JK has only always been in the private sector. He owns his own pharmaceutical brand, that truly has not done too well of one would critically access it, especially if you compare with how new brands, who just came yesterday have sprung up in the last few years and the kind of monumental growths they have had, with branches springing up every where, every time. Babatunde Olalere Gbadamosi on the other part, has done extremely well for himself in business. He is one person that can be tagged a young czar of the private sector, a self made, bright and quite intelligent or knowledgeable shining star. Born in the UK of Nigerian parentage. He is quick to tell whoever cares to know that though he is a successful businessman/property merchant of note, he doesn't have a degree!

Yes, he actually dropped out after 3 years at the Lagos State University (LASU). He has since grown to be a successful entrepreneur, who is the chairman of Amen Estate in Lagos and also Redbrick Homes International.

So, the Lagos election would be keenly watched to see if it's a continuation or a new dawn or a total total change in all ramifications. Would it be BOS or JK or BOG? We would know quite soon, by Monday or Tuesday next week. But we can tell you categorically though that, more people would come out enmasse to vote this time around, better than they did on February 23, 2019 and one of the 3 would nick it by the skin of his teeth.

OYO STATE.

Senator Abiola Ajimobi, Oyo State

It would have been a whole lot clearer in Oyo State had the APC won in the Presidential election of February 23, 2019. The opposition took the state and that shows things would not be a walk in the park for the APC in Oyo. Part of the reason why the state was lost was also due to how the outgoing government of Senator Abiola Ajimobi is perceived.

Plenty more after the break.

GOING, GOING, GONE!!! NO, NOT AT ALL. ATLEAST NOT YET FOR SENATOR IBIKUNLE AMOSUN AS HE ALLEGEDLY DUMPS THE APC FOR THE ACCORD PARTY OVER THE HUMILIATION OF HIS PREFERRED CANDIDATE NOT BECOMING THE PARTY'S ASPIRANT

The 2 friends at Dapo Abiodun's 56 birthday 2 years prior. 

Dapo Abiodun 

The shortfall of the humiliation that his boy didn't come out tops as really affected Senator IBIKUNLE AMOSUN the outgoing Governor of Ogun State and because of it, some have claimed he has already dumped his party the APC for another, said to be the Accord Party.

If he were to do that then, it would mean he doesn't even mind the fact that his avowed friendship with the President would be shaken/disturbed!!!! And that would amount to him throwing all he had worked for and built all of these years to the dogs without a care in the world.

His vehement opposition to his erstwhile friend-Dapo Abiodun's Governorship ambition is totally unsettling though, making some to even doubt there was ever a genuine friendship at all in the 1st instance. For how can your so called bosom friend want something and needs your support and you are totally and unrepentantly without a care at that against it!!! But according to a school of thought, Senator Ibikunle Amosun's opposition to Dapo Abiodun's ambition might have stemmed from the fact that he like most people, like most of us also, wouldn't want to hand over to someone, that is perceived to be wiser than you and that wouldn't ever ever be your puppet or stooge, one that you can't easily control from the apron string. That kind of person that you would push to the position of power and relevance and that must forever be at your beck and call forever. One other supposed reason for the Governor's opposition also might be because he sees Dapo Abiodun as a paperweight electorally; how can someone who couldn't win a an election to be a Senator of a few Constitutencies, now wants to prosecute a Gubernatorial ambition which is even on a far bigger scale?

More after the break.

KWARA STATE GEARS UP FOR A MASSIVE BATTLE COME 2019 GOVERNORSHIP ELECTION.

Abdulrahaman Abdulrazaq

Hon. Razak Atunwa

Prince Ayorinde Adedoyin 

Wow wow wow. While the election in Lagos is seen as a big battle between the APC's own Babajide Olusola Sanwoolu and PDP's own Jimi 'JK' Agbaje. Oyo's battle would be between APC's former CBN deputy Governor and PDP's own Seyi Makinde, the battle in Kwara is three pronged and it promises to be epic by all accounts as the 3 aspirants representing the 3 most visible political parties in the state are heavy, heavyweights by all accounts. Not only are they very visible, the trio are also moneybags by any account you'll want to judge it by.

On the side of the APC, you have the one and only Abdulrahman Abdulrasaq, a billionaire businessman oil magnate now turned politician. He at the last election gave the Senate President, Dr. Bukola Saraki a major scare at the Kwara Central Senatorial election. And there's no love lost between the 2. When Saraki jumped ship to the APC back then, Abdulrasaq immediately moved out of APC & moved over to the PDP. Just as soon as Saraki again jumped ship to the PDP from the APC, Abdulrasaq immediately dusted himself again and moved out of the PDP back to the APC with about 120000 supporters.  The 50 plus year old moneybag, with major investments in oil and gas and others, is the founder of First Fuels and is not a neophyte at all in the political terrain of Kwara State. He would love to have one over Saraki at all cost, as he believed that he won against him the last time.

To become the flag bearer of the APC in Kwara State, the very intelligent businessman, sports enthusiast cum politician dusted all other contenders by polling 29098 votes against Alhaji Yammah Abdullahi who came 2nd and polled 22116 votes. AA as he is referred to by a lot of people has the resources and wherewithal in abundance (a moneybag per excellence) to prosecute his ambition to a favourable conclusion. His younger sister is the popular Senator Khairat Abdulrazaq Gwadabe. What he has going for him apart from age, he his just 58, is that he has a proven wealth of experience in the private sector in creating wealth. His business forays has him having investments as far as Cote D'ivoire. He is the founder and sponsor of Abuja FC. From our findings, there's an unprecedented groundswell of ever rising support for him to win the election. In fact the elite and others prefer him far above every other aspirant for the job.

Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq, is one of the well to do kids of the first ever lawyer from Northern Nigeria. His dad Alhaji A.G.F Abdulrazaq a renowned jurist was also a prominent Minister in the 1st Republic.

In the race to the Ahmadu Bello Way Governor's office also is another very formidable personality by name Hon. Razak Atunwa. A super intelligent lawyer and Lawmaker, who since he returned to Nigeria and Kwara State has been very much involved in Governance as it concerns politics in Kwara State. His bio for a 48 year old is quite staggering and impressive.

He knows his beloved Kwara State inside and out as he has been part of the Governance in the state for quite a bit, which is a major plus for him. He was a commissioner over many different portfolios-finance, land and housing, information, works & transportation, in Kwara State from 2005 till 2011, that's all of 7 years, before he was elected into the State House of Assembly KWHA where he went on to become the speaker of the house from 2011 till 2015, for 5 years after which when he ran for the House of Representative and won to represent Asa/Ilorin West at the House (so that's at least 15 years experience in Governance). It is from the lower House now that he contested the Governorship Primary of the PDP which he won to represent the Party now at the next election.

He is a very strong ally of Dr. Bukola Saraki under who he was the Commissioner. He had got his law degree both LLB and LLM in London and was called to the bar also on London too. In fact according to the gist he was brought back from London by the late Dr Olusola Saraki, where at a point he was said to have been cab driver to help fund his education. There's the little controversy though about where he is from in Ilorin, for no one has ever been able to pinpoint his supposed family house in Ilorin. His strong connect with the Saraki political family may either be positive or negative for him in the long run.

The last but not the least personality by no means is none other than the 'Prince of Agbamu' himself, "Prince Ayorinde Adedoyin". Prince Ayorinde has thought to tread a totally different path to achieve his aim. He would be riding on the back of the Accord Party towards the goal. But to talk about this quintessential good dude and Philanthropist per excellence, we would first talk about his father, the super wealthy industrialist, Sir Samuel Adedoyin of the Doyin Groups Fame. The old man's story is the stuff dreams are made of. The old man now in his 80s rose from grass, the very last rung by the dint of hard work and providence to grace. He owns a vast conglomerate that includes industries and vast property portfolio and other investments. Ayorinde Adedoyin is his 1st son and the highly connected young man by every standard, is not a pushover at all too by any means.

By the grace of God, the man in his early 50s whose late elder sister was a former Health Minister and a Lawmaker, that's Hon. Funke Adedoyin till she recently passed on, has really done extremely well for himself too in business. Not one to sit on his oars, believing that wealth has already been made and then all he needs to do, is to run his father's vast business and that's it. But as soon as he finished school he immediately branched out and began to chart his own path immediately, by setting up his own firms which are variously into maritime, oil and gas, logistics, aviation, real estate and hospitality, all under the umbrella of a holding company Peacegate Group. Peace Gate group is a successful multifaceted company by all standards. He has going for him, very excellent private sector experience.

His passion for Kwara State is enveloping. The Prince of Agbamu believes so much that not even a quarter of the endowment of his beloved Kwara have been exploited. And like he preaches at every turn, that his ambition is not a do or die one, just that he wants to serve his beloved state to the best of his abilities. He has come in as a new star, not on the old beaten track of the APC or PDP, but as a real alternative from the Accord Party!!!

So from the looks of things, this would be a 3-pronged battle ROYALE, a major slamdunk 2019 event!!!!! Who would carry the day eventually! !!