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| BOS of APC vs. JK of PDP in Lagos |
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| Babatunde O. Gbadamosi of the ADP Lagos |
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| Bayo Adelabu of APC vs. Seyi Makinde of PDP |
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| Abiodun of APC vs. KASHAMU of PDP vs. ISIAKA of ADC vs. Akinlade of APM |
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| Razak ATUNWA of PDP vs. Abdulrahaman AbdulRazaq of APC in Kwara State |
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| Ayorinde Adedoyin of Accord Party Kwara State |
Analysis of how things might pan out, considering the contestants, their parties, their strengths and their weaknesses.
Tomorrow is the D-day! That's when the Gubernatorial elections across the states in Nigeria would take place and the general populace are expected to troop out enmasse to elect those to take charge of their affairs for the next 4 years.
It's not just the Gubernatorial though, elections for the states House Of Assembly would also be going on simultaneously, but we would be concentrating our attention strictly on the Governorship and further, our eyes would be glued strictly to the happenstances in some of the states in the SW, where elections would take place, as the likes of Ondo, Ekiti and Osun States are not participating for obvious reasons.
Lagos, Ogun, Oyo States are the 3 major battlegrounds plus Kwara State in the North Central. In these 4 states it's an outright battle between the 2 most prominent Political parties in the country, that's talking about the APC & the PDP, except in Ogun State where about 2 more parties have gained a bit more of ascendancy and therefore have been added to the mix for particular reasons, those parties are the African Democratic Congress, where Gboyega Nasir Isiaka is the party's aspirant & Allied People's Movement, where the incumbent Governor's favorite boy, Hon. Adekunle Akinlade, is the aspirant.
These particular election is most definitely going to be one of the most keenly fought ever in the histories of those states. Many of the opponents are evenly matched and there are factors that have given some candidates and their parties slight edges or advantages.
LAGOS STATE.
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| Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu |
This is where a major battle royale would happen, the state of aquatic excellence. And it is expected that it would be an epic battle that would shake the state to its very marrow. The 3 major contestants that would contend vigorously against each other are none other than Babatunde Olusola Sanwoolu of the ruling APC, his fierce opponent, Jimi Agbaje of the PDP and then to a certain extent, Babatunde Olalere. Gbadamosi of the ADP (Action Democratic Party). Some people might not necessarily consider BOG, but we would like to say to such people that, dismiss him at your own peril. We are of the opinion that he seems to have gained some tractions of recent, as he is seen by some as a fantastic alternative to both the APC & the PDP. So for many who are in the middle and who don't want any of the 2 major parties again for some reasons best known to them, they see BOG as their rallying point.
The battle between the 2 major parties, that's the APC & the PDP would be totally and unpretentiously fierce. While the APC wants to win again in Lagos at all cost, to rub salt on the injury of the PDP for losing the Presidential election, which they the PDP had been so sure they could win. The PDP on the other hand, are desperate to win Lagos for 2 major reasons, it would mean the destruction of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, both as a person and politically wise. The chieftain of the APC, has bestrode Lagos politically this close to 2 decades like a colossus that oukd not be dislodged, so his total DEMYSTIFICATION would sit well with the PDP, where they to win Lagos. And it would also give them, the PDP some certain value and control.
That the PDP was not pulverized, obliterated or annihilated at the Presidential election of February 23, 2019 has given them the belief that nothing is impossible. Everyone had expected a monumentally scary margin of victory like Yobe State. But imagine that the election was won by just a 130000 plus margin, in a state where the Asiwaju controls?
So after their defeat at the Presidential election, the PDP rallying call became the need to defeat BAT at all cost, no matter what! Let's wrestle the state from him, while giving it all it takes. So the array of gladiators involved in the battle for Lagos is staggering. Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, Ayodele Fayose, Olabode George, Jimi Agbaje. Infact there are some who are supposedly progressives joined in the battle too, but who are in the shadows who would love to see the back of the Asiwaju. But can these assemblage, no matter how intimidating pin down and pin fall the cat with the 9 lives? While the PDP have their own array of strong men, the APC too also have theirs, led by the generalismo himself, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, supported faithfully by Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, flanked by Cardinal Odumbaku and other grassroots mobilisers of note.
Truth be told, monumental amount of funds, such as never seen or encountered before, have gone out from both sides and have exchanged hands to make sure that it all goes well for both sides and so that things would also go according to scripts also. Asiwaju is seen as a veteran of many battles, who has honed his skills over time and so knows too well, how to go about winning the wars. Deploying his soldiers tactically with strong arsenals. But this particular war has many factors that are not playing strictly to script. The Ibos in Lagos, seem to have a bit of power and they are keeping their ace to their chest and are seen as one of the factors that could swing the vote, either way! Some have even identified them as spoilers. So both parties have been courting them. Reason why the former Governor of Abia State, now a Senator elect, in the person of Sir Orji Uzor Kalu is said to have come to Lagos to tell the Ibos not to disturb the apple cart and to vote for the APC.
While the thrust of PDP's campaign has been about Freedom: freeing Lagos from the supposed clutches of the Asiwaju. Who they have painted as one parasite, that is sapping the life-force of the state. Their claim is that how can one man alone, over a very long period of time, sit alone and be in charge of the affairs of Lagos in all ramifications, especially as they claim that he is even a non indigene. But the thrust of the APC rather has been about Continuity. Claiming that Lagos was and would never be enslaved by any. But that the Asiwaju actually, conceptualized the blueprint of the better and more modern, more prosperous Lagos, we are supposedly enjoying now. A state that is even somewhat now bigger than the FG and is in fact NOW, the 6th largest economy in Africa. The claim is that, instead of trying to cast aspersions on the Asiwaju and put him in a bad-light, he has rather being a great discoverer of wonderful talents who he has natured and who have helped steered the affairs of the state admirably and exemplarily, and who have all been empowered and have become giants too now.
While the PDP and APC are having a go at each other, BOG of the ADP on the other side, has just been on his own in the position of the best alternative to the 2. One who seem to have dissected the state and her issues very well and has diagnosed what the problems are, who seem to have clear and somewhat fantastic ideas about what he wants to do and solutions and answers to provide: but the issue now is, he doesn't seem to have a great platform to prosecute his dream.
Of the 3, Sanwoolu, has had a great record in the private and public sector put together. In fact his experience in governance when compared to the 3 is staggering. From being former adviser to Governor, to Commissioner over more than one portfolio, boss of an important Government parastatal, policy formulator etc. JK has only always been in the private sector. He owns his own pharmaceutical brand, that truly has not done too well of one would critically access it, especially if you compare with how new brands, who just came yesterday have sprung up in the last few years and the kind of monumental growths they have had, with branches springing up every where, every time. Babatunde Olalere Gbadamosi on the other part, has done extremely well for himself in business. He is one person that can be tagged a young czar of the private sector, a self made, bright and quite intelligent or knowledgeable shining star. Born in the UK of Nigerian parentage. He is quick to tell whoever cares to know that though he is a successful businessman/property merchant of note, he doesn't have a degree!
Yes, he actually dropped out after 3 years at the Lagos State University (LASU). He has since grown to be a successful entrepreneur, who is the chairman of Amen Estate in Lagos and also Redbrick Homes International.
So, the Lagos election would be keenly watched to see if it's a continuation or a new dawn or a total total change in all ramifications. Would it be BOS or JK or BOG? We would know quite soon, by Monday or Tuesday next week. But we can tell you categorically though that, more people would come out enmasse to vote this time around, better than they did on February 23, 2019 and one of the 3 would nick it by the skin of his teeth.
OYO STATE.
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| Senator Abiola Ajimobi, Oyo State |
It would have been a whole lot clearer in Oyo State had the APC won in the Presidential election of February 23, 2019. The opposition took the state and that shows things would not be a walk in the park for the APC in Oyo. Part of the reason why the state was lost was also due to how the outgoing government of Senator Abiola Ajimobi is perceived.
Plenty more after the break.
